- Geopolitics of Energy -

Modified information from the book "what YOU SHOULD KNOW about POLITICS . . . but don't by Jessamyn Conrad

• Everybody recognizes the importance of finding new fuel sources.
• Oil energy fundamentally underlies our national economic power.
• Oil politics depends on supply, pricing, and consumption.
• America is the largest consumer of oil in the world, with India and China catching up. This status makes us an important player in the oil economy.
• America use to be the world leader in oil production.
• 1946 is the year our (American) oil production first fell behind our use of oil.
• America now buys more oil from Canada than from any other nation.
• Historically, nations that can harness a lot of energy dominate the world economy, and nations that lose their energy sources fail. (Thomas Homer-Dixon, "The Upside of Down," 2006)
• Electricity deregulation has raised the prices for consumers. (Center for Popular Economics, "For the Public Good - Mythbusters: Deregulation Electricity" 2006)
• Disruptions in oil supply have preceded all recessions since the Great Depression. (Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI "PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT" February 2005)
• All alternative energy sources face significant hurdles to development.
• Our energy needs drive much of our foreign policy and can trigger economic, manufacturing, environmental, and public health problems.
• Energy use underlies every aspect of our economic activities.
• The Department of Energy considers itself a national security agency, makes sense when you recognize how important energy supply is.
• While there is disagreement about the size and shape of our energy problem, everyone agrees on the basics: the world is running out of oil and there is no single good alternative.
• The United Nation's nuclear watchdog agency is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• The IAEA director general an American educated Egyptian named Mohamed ElBaradei won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005.
• In 2002-3 ElBaradei disagreed with the Bush Administration's official policy on Iraq's nuclear capabilities, basically he disputed the US rationale for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. (Elise Labott, "U.S. Opposes Third Term for IAEA Chief," CNN.com, December 14, 2004)
• ElBaradei's third four-year term in 2005, was opposed primarily by the United States under the Bush administration. But ElBaradei was re-appointed by the IAEA Board on June 13
• Currently, the US, the UN, and the IAEA are embroiled in a dispute with Iran due to worries over their fuel enrichment activities (that can lead to the creation of a nuclear weapon).
• The argument that matters most is not when we will run out of oil but when will world oil production peak? Because the subsequent decline will be sharp and demand will be growing.
• The most optimistic projection is 2035. Other experts predict the peak around 2015.
• If oil pipelines run dry and there's nothing to pick up the slack, it will be disastrous.
• Oil shortages triggered all 3 American recessions in the past 30 years. ("Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management," by Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader, Roger Bezdek, MISI and Robert Wendling, MISI, February 2005.)
• Saudi Arabia is the de facto head of OPEC, the influential world oil cartel.
• Currently, the top 10 Oil Producers (Barrels/Day) per the CIA World Factbook 2008 are Saudi Arabia, Russia, USA, Iran, Mexico, China, Canada, Norway, Venezuela, Iraq.
• Currently, the top 10 Proven Oil Reserves (Barrels) are Saudi Arabia (266,800,000,000 bbl), Canada, Iran (132,500,000,000 bbl), Iraq (115,000,000,000 bbl), Venezuela, Russia, Libya, USA (21,760,000,000 bbl), China, Mexico.
• Current NATO allies - Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, United Kingdom, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia.
• Current major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA) Australia (1989) Egypt (1989) Israel (1989) Japan (1989) South Korea (1989) Jordan (1996) New Zealand (1997) Argentina (1998) - Post 9/11 MNNAs - Bahrain (2002) Philippines (2003) Thailand (2003) Kuwait (2004) Morocco (2004) Pakistan (2004)
• The US and Saudi Arabia have over a 75+ year history back before an oil relationship started. In 1933 the Kingdom granted oil concessions to Standard Oil of California (Socal, today's Chevron).
• There have been protracted struggles among the major Western powers over oil since the early 1900s (then a British-American rivalry) in the Middle East involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait oil.
• Exertions of diplomatic and military power are not things of the past, as can be seen with Iraq and possibly Iran, or of the Middle East shown by events in Venezuela since 1988. Venezuelan President Chavez is a close ally of Iran, Syria and Cuba and called President Bush the Devil.
• America is the biggest consumer of oil in the world and imports over 60% of its oil, primarily from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi is the leader of OPEC because it has more oil then anyone else.
• The 1977 Democratic President Jimmy Carter said, "fixing the energy policy is the moral equivalent to war." He thought addressing the energy crisis was the key to preventing future wars.
• The effect of supply on oil prices triggered the First Gulf War. Hussein (Iraq President) invaded Kuwait when they wouldn't listen to him and flooded the market with cheap oil, driving down prices. Hussein saw this as a national threat and invaded Kuwait. The Saudis worrying they were next, put out extra oil to steady the market as America backed by a broad international coalition, pushed Hussein back. The US and Saudi Arabia emerged as the managers of the global energy order. The Saudis supplied the oil and the Americans would supply protection.
• As terrorism loomed in the 1990's, the Saudis were involved. Osama Bin Laden is a Saudi and it has been shown that much of the funding for al-Qaeda flowed from and thru Saudi implicating Saudi Arabia in the 9/11 attacks.
• Controlling Iraq, with its big oil reserves and cheap extraction rates, would allow America to bypass or undermine Saudi's OPEC authority.
• When Iraq was invaded American forces were careful to protect the Iraq oil infrastructure.
• One effect of the Iraq war has been to send oil prices to historic highs. That means oil producing nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are making lots of money, as are those in the oil industry here in the US.
• The high cost of oil has exposed the real cost of oil - subsidies for decades by our government. (Stephen Leahy, "U.S.: Great Place for the Oil Business", from Koplow's 2007 report to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)
• US citizens, our armed forces and their families, Iraqi civilians are paying a high cost for the geopolitics of oil and national security.
• Canada is now the Americas biggest supplier. Our options are limited: Iran (?), Iraq is a mess and our relationship with Russia and Saudi Arabia is strained.
• Natural gas is prospective alternative to oil but has its own geopolitical issues. The big fields are in Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Qatar - none of which are friendly with Iran being downright hostile.

According to Congressional Quarterly's Voting Studies, in 2007 McCain voted in line with the president's position 95 percent of the time - the highest percentage rate for McCain since Bush took office - and voted in line with his party 90 percent of the time.

THINK: how does this information change the way you think about our current foreign policies?

Question: who do you think has the personal leadership style to be a successful global leader? As said in Second Chance, "the power to destroy exceeds the power to control".

Second Chance by Zbigniew Brzezinski -"Global leadership now must be accompanied by a social consciousness, a readiness to compromise regarding some aspects of one's own sovereignty, a cultural appeal with more than just hedonistic content, and a genuine respite for the diversity of human traditions and values.

At the onset of the global era, a dominant power has therefore no choice but to pursue a foreign policy that is truly globalist in spirit, content, and scope. Nothing could be worse for America, and eventually the world, than if American policy were universally viewed as arrogantly imperial, selfishly indifferent in the face of unprecedented global interdependence, and culturally self-righteous in a religiously diverse world."